Strategy for accurate scores in football. System for determining the exact score in football The most common score in football statistics

It passes quite quickly, and they begin to look for more interesting outcomes in the line than bets on victory and total. One such option is correct score betting, which bookmakers offer on many team and single sports. Players are attracted to bets on the exact score primarily by their high odds.

Example

Let's take the Tottenham - Arsenal match as an example. The odds for the main outcomes look like this: 2.37-3.30-3.00. Now pay attention to what quotes the bookmaker gives for the exact score. If you bet $100 on a likely Arsenal away win with a score of 2:1, then if successful, your winnings will be $1,100.

In which sports can you bet on the exact score?

football, hockey (counting goals and pucks)
volleyball (game score)
tennis (two types of bets are possible: on the score of sets and on the score of games in a separate set)
other sports (in major tournaments, bookmakers provide similar markets for futsal, bandy, Beach Soccer and other sports.)

pros

High odds. Play on the main outcomes and odds of 3.50 will be “fat” for you, and when betting on the exact score, even odds of 10.00 will become commonplace.
Possibility of opposite bets. Let's take a football match between two teams with a weak attack and a strong goalkeeper line. Most likely the game will be before a goal and there are only three possible options in it: 1:0, 0:0 and 0:1. You cannot bet on the three main selections due to the office margin, but on these three accounts the odds will probably be around 6.00-8.00. Even if you bet $100 on each of these accounts, if you win, your winnings will be at least $600.

How not to make a mistake?

Flaws

Inflated bookmaker margin. Moreover, it is very difficult to calculate.
It is difficult to predict the exact score. Too many minor nuances affect this.
There are few strategies for playing in this market. Those of them that are publicly available are 99% unprofitable.

Summary

Professional bettors avoid betting on the exact score due to the fact that it is difficult to calculate the probability of a particular outcome. For them it is much easier to bet on total or, and in many ways they are right. Betting on the exact score only seems profitable at first glance due to the high odds, but in most cases they do not justify themselves. It is very difficult to play in this market and only a few achieve success at such rates.

In the schedules for football matches there are always bets on the exact score. It may seem like a bad idea to bet on the score in football matches. However, it is not necessary to guess the outcome using a single. In this article, we will look at several strategies for betting on the exact score of a match.

The idea is based on the fact that in football most games end 1-0; 1-1; 0-1. Our task is to select meetings that, in our opinion, will end in one of these outcomes. Let's look at the odds that bookmakers usually offer. Take for example the English Premier League match between Leicester and Watford. One well-known bookmaker offers the following odds for this game:

1-0– 8,5;
0-0– 8,4;
1-1 – 7;
0-1 – 9,0
Any other result is 14.5.

The last bet means that one of the teams must score 4 or more goals. We bet the same amount on each result in singles. For example, if you bet 10 units on each game, then the smallest win will be 10, since the coefficient on 1-1 is 7. The total amount of money bet is 50 units, and the winnings are 70. We get a profit of 20 units. In other scenarios, the winnings turns out to be several times larger.

It is clear that you can lose using this strategy. To minimize risks, you need to choose the right fights. More or less “correct” variants of outcomes that fall within our area of interest occur in the championships of Italy, Portugal, Spain, and France. Only on the account 1-1 there can be quotes lower than 7. If we bet on 5 outcomes, then with a result of 1-1 we will make a profit even if the odds on it are 6. If we bet on 6 outcomes, then to make a profit the odds must be higher 6. If it is equal to 6, then we bet on 5 outcomes.

Analyzing statistics

To find teams suitable for this strategy, you should carefully work with statistics. In general, the strategy can be applied to those championships in which at least 6-8 rounds have passed. During this time, the minimum statistics of the teams' games will appear.

We select teams that play good defense and do not run headlong to score goals even in situations where they are losing. It is ideal to find clubs like the Italian teams of the 90s, which finished almost half of their games in Serie A with results of 1-0 and 1-1. There are similar teams in almost every of the above-mentioned championships.

We open the statistics and find clubs with prevailing scores of 1-0, 0-0, 1-1,2-1. It is important that the overwhelming number of fights be played with less total. The priority for these clubs is to play defensively and not miss a goal. It is ideal when two such teams meet. On weekends, you can find a dozen or even more such meetings.

When selecting events, we will find out the weather forecast on the day of the game in advance. If the weather is expected to be inclement, with rain, then this is an additional plus for us. In bad weather with heavy rain, the field becomes heavy and slippery. It's quite difficult to create chances on it. Especially for teams that, even in normal weather, do not shine with effectiveness and spectacular play.

Option 2. Place express bets

The next method, a little more complex, is to compile express bets on exact accounts. We select those matches in which an equal game is expected. We make sure that the home team does not have a large advantage of victories, and that the guest team plays more or less successfully on the road. Next, we select 3-4 accounts that, in our opinion, are most likely.

For example, we selected 3 games. For each of them, we selected the most probable scores, in our opinion: 1-0, 2-1, 2-0. As a rule, the odds for such outcomes are in the range of 7-9. For example, on an account 1-0 the odds will be 7, on 2-1 – 8, on 1-1 – 8. Next, we draw up all the options for express bets that can be with these outcomes. We get 27 bets with the following odds:

If any of these options plays, then we make a profit. The smallest profit will be from an express bet with odds of 343. If we bet 1 unit on each of them, we get a profit equal to 343 – 27 = 316.

It is clear that you can lose all your bets. But if at least the 10th time we win even the minimum amount, we will still end up making a profit. It is only important to select a match with the necessary criteria.

It is advisable that the minimum coefficient of one of the express bets exceeds the amount of money spent by at least 10 times. Thus, the player will receive 10 attempts to place bets. Having won on the 11th, he will win back all the money spent and still be in the black.

Account bets can consist of express bets and four or more outcomes. In this case, we will get 64 options. Even if in some of them the quotes are 7;7; 6;6, then we get a win of 1764 – 64 = 1700. This is when winning with the lowest odds. As you can see, with more options we get significant profits and the number of attempts to make a bet increases. You can lose 20 times in a row, but with a one-time win, your losses will be covered and you will get a good plus.

If we include 5 outcomes in express bets, we will get 125 bets. To calculate the possible profit, we take the smallest coefficient of them. The results can be 1-0, 1-1, 2-1, 0-0, 0-1. Let's assume that the odds for these singles will be as follows: 7, 6, 6, 6, 6. We get a total odds of 9072. Subtract the amount bet on all options from this number, we get 9072 – 125 = 8947. We can lose up to 60 times in a row , but having won at least once, we return all the money and get a small plus.

The main disadvantage of this betting strategy on the exact score is the fact that the betting process takes a lot of time. It is better to somehow automate the process of compiling express bets and calculating odds. In a good way The solution to this problem will be to compile an Excel table for all express bet options with the calculation of the final odds. In the table you can enter team names, select scores and indicate odds. Having received the list of express bets, we place bets at bookmakers.

Register in several offices

To play according to the strategy for the exact score in football, you need to bet in several offices. Not all bookmakers allow you to place express bets with accurate results, especially if there are more than 100 of them. Therefore, it is better to bet in at least five or six offices. This way, you can distribute profits across several streams without attracting the attention of the “jury”.

Even if the office agrees to accept such bets, sooner or later it will end, and your maximums will be cut or the number of bets will be reduced to a minimum. Naturally, you should choose the most reliable bookmakers with a good reputation. Check out our. Happy betting!

Betting on the exact score in football seems like fun to most players, unsuitable for serious betting due to the difficulty of predicting the final score in a football match, but in fact, if you choose your bet wisely and apply a special strategy, you can increase the chances of success.

High odds

Betting on the correct score always has good odds, so the game here is always worth the candle, and you can count on a solid win even with a small bet amount. What is the strategy for betting on the correct score based on? First of all, on statistics, which are not difficult to obtain these days, even if we're talking about about the match of little-known teams.

There are a number of specialized sites that offer not only archived results football games, but also advanced statistics that can also be used by the player - the number of shots (on target/miss), saves, percentage of scoring chances, etc.

Strategy based on average number of goals

There are several methods for predicting scores in football, and one of the most popular is based on calculating the average number of goals scored and conceded by each team. We take the average number of goals that the home team scores and concedes, add them with the same indicators of the opponent and look for the average, getting the expected score.

For example, let's take already match played Championship Charlton - Leeds. At the time of the game, Charlton had 52 goals scored and 55 conceded in 43 matches, that is, an average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.28 conceded. Leeds had a goal difference of 47-58, an average of 1.09 scored a goal and 1.34 missed. That is, we got a preliminary score of 1.27 - 1.18, and in the end Charlton won 2:1.

This is vulnerable because it is based on such a statistical concept as the average value, which is very popular among players, but often does not give a real picture of what is happening. For example, a team may not score at all for five matches, and then win 6:0 and the average number of its goals will be equal to one, although, in fact, it scored in only one match and kept five clean sheets.

Mode and median are the forecaster’s best assistants

Much more interesting indicators from the world of statistics may be the mode and median, as well as the numerical interval. What it is? Mode is the magnitude of a value that is most often found in a number series. In our case, the number of goals that a team scores most often.

Calculating this indicator will help to immediately discard random defeats and special cases that will not affect the overall picture, and we will learn that Charlton most often scores 2 goals, and most often concedes 1 goal. Leeds score 1 goal more often than not and concede 1 or 2 goals in most cases. This knowledge would make us revolve around the scores 2:1, 1:1, 1:0 and the probability of correct prediction would increase significantly.

The median is the option located in the center of a ranked series of results and is usually used in conjunction with a numerical interval to help better understand the essence of statistical indicators. A player using a football score prediction strategy should use not only the average, but also the mode and median indicators described above, since they are often better suited for these purposes, helping to discard random indicators that greatly influence the average.

Think like a bookmaker

In addition, you can base your strategy on calculating the expected number of goals based on indicators such as shots on goal, their accuracy and percentage of scoring chances. At least for matches of the top football leagues, the Champions League and the Europa League, such statistical data is freely available, and they can be of great help in predicting the final score.

All the described strategies may seem very complex and require specific mathematical knowledge and additional information, but these are the indicators that bookmakers operate in their work, and in order to be on an equal footing with them, and sometimes even be one step ahead, you need to understand all the intricacies of predicting sports results .

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Bookmaker websites offer bets on the exact score of football matches. The number of possible outcomes allows players to use several effective strategies to play with the bookmaker.

In this article we will look at several strategies for accurate scores in football matches. Let's learn how to search for fights and how to determine the bet size.

Betting strategy on the exact score in football

Football matches in many championships most often end with results such as 1-0; 2-1: 1-1. As a rule, such outcomes prevail in the championships of Greece, Portugal, Italy, and Russia.

The meaning of this method is that we select 10 matches from different championships, and bet 3 singles on each of them on the most likely results. Priority should be given to grassroots groups, which very rarely break through TB 2.5. Examples include singles for the following results:

1-0;
1-1;
0-0.

There may be a specific set of singles for matches. It is quite possible that instead of 0-0 there will be 0-1 or 2-1. Statistics will help you determine the outcome. The emphasis should be placed separately on home and away matches of teams. The choice is made in favor of the outcomes that prevail in the team fights.

For example, let's take the home matches of Lokomotiv Moscow in the 17/18 season:

The railroad workers demonstrated strict defensive play throughout the season. This table suggests bets on 1 single: 1-0. Here you can limit yourself to one outcome.

Lokomotiv score 1-0 6 times out of 15. This means that the odds for this result should not be less than 2.5. Anything higher is rubbish. Now let’s look at the odds listed by the bookmaker:

Here the odds are 5.3. So this is a good offer.

Other teams are selected in the same way for betting on the exact score in football. If the team often plays with 3 outcomes, then we bet on the corresponding number of singles. If there are 2 results, then the bettor chooses 2 singles. The main thing is to select 10 matches according to this criterion and bet the correct amounts.

How much to bet?

The bet size will be determined depending on the odds. The easiest way is to use the following formula:

Here S= 5, and K is the coefficient for the exact count. The result is obtained as a percentage of the bank. For quote values of 5,6,7, the percentage of the bank will be 2.5; 2,2 and 2 respectively. It is easy to calculate other bet values for all possible odds.

There is no aggressive chasing used here. The emphasis is on grassroots teams that play cautiously in defense. 10 fights are selected in order to spin funds faster and get tangible profits in a short time. For this strategy, it is not necessary to guess the exact score in football. It is important to choose the most likely outcomes and correctly determine the bet size.

Betting on the correct score using the D'Alembert method

Bet on football results possible using the d'Alembert financial strategy. This is not an aggressive chase. According to the rules of this technique, the player chooses the initial bet size, taking it as one. If the bet is successful, then the size for the next one increases by one. If you lose, then the value for the next bet remains the same.

First bet size for accurate counting should not exceed 2.5% of the bank. You can bet immediately after finishing the game. It is not necessary to catch up with one team. The main thing is that the clubs meet the criteria specified above. Perfect option– Locomotive of the 17/18 season. The score 1-0 in home matches of Yuri Semin's team occurred with enviable regularity. Rubin plays in approximately the same spirit.

Betting on the exact score of a football match is not very popular among forecasters. High odds, of course, attract attention, but it seems that it is sometimes simply unrealistic to predict how a particular match will end. However, there are still experts in betting on the exact score. So how can you make money predicting the score of a football match?

What is considered the most popular score in football?

Many people believe that the most common result in football is 0-0. In fact, we can only partially agree with this statement, since a goalless draw is only one of the most popular ending options football matches. Statistics indicate that the most common results are 0-0, 1-1, 1-0 (in favor of any team) and 2-0 (in favor of any team). Bookmakers offer the lowest odds for these results.

How to avoid making a mistake when betting on the exact score of a football match?

It is very important for a successful bet to pay due attention to processing statistics. A thorough analysis of statistical data will allow you to achieve the desired result. It is necessary to take into account both the performance of the opponents and the performance of the entire championship. If the tournament averages 1.8 goals per game, then you can hardly hope that the teams will play with a score of 4:1 or 3:3. It’s much easier with less-scoring matches. Please note that some teams score particularly poorly, for example in away matches. Or, conversely, the favorites of the season “break away” from outsiders in matches on their home field.

How to bet on the correct score to make money on betting?

If you are confident that one of your opponents will win, then you can bet on the 3-4 most likely results. This could be, for example, 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-1. If the match ends with one of these results, then even one bet will completely cover the other three. It is especially worth paying attention to such an offer from bookmakers as a bet “on another account”. Some bookmakers do not offer bets on unlikely outcomes, such as 7-2 or 10-3. Instead, the line has an “any other” bet, which means any account option other than those listed on the line.

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