How to tell fortunes using cards for sporting events. Forecasts for Sport

They field a second or third team, and this significantly reduces their chances of winning.

Pay attention to the odds at bookmakers. As a rule, a high odds indicate that the team has little chance of winning, and vice versa.

It matters where the game takes place. If this is a home match for one of the teams, then the probability of its victory increases significantly. This is especially true for those countries where football is especially popular - England, Italy, Brazil. In these countries, the role of fans is very important due to their passionate support of their favorite team.

Please be aware that match fixing may occur. This is especially practiced in national championships. Analyze standings, perhaps this match no longer decides anything for one of the teams. This team can theoretically negotiate with the opposing team an outcome of the match that is favorable to the opponent.

Connect your intuition to everything written above, and by 80 percent you will guess the outcome of the match you need. But remember that there is another 20 percent that depends solely on luck and luck.

If you were unable to watch a football match on TV or in the stands of the stadium, you can find out the final score of the game on the Internet, on the radio or on TV. Find information about the result of a match that took place in more than early period, you can on specialized sites.

Instructions

Visit www.championat.com. If you are interested in the result of a match that took place a few hours ago, you will see this information in the window located under the site symbols at the top of the page. All the latest news is presented there. Please note that the data is divided into blocks by , and matches are listed in the order in which they take place in real time.

Scroll down the page and find the horizontal menu, colored orange. The first section in it is “Football”, hover your cursor over it. Russian tournaments will appear in front of you, in which competitions are held, and European championships. Select the section you are interested in. In it you can find information about matches of past years and the latest data. To do this, select a time period in the page that opens, and then click the “Game Calendar” menu button. You will see everything in it matches played, divided into tables by rounds. The game results are listed on the right side of the tables.

Find the website of the team you are interested in in any search engine. On the main page, pay attention to the “Game Calendar” section, select the season in which the game you are interested in took place, and look at the result. The latest football events are usually covered on the main pages of the teams' official websites.

Listen to Radio Sport. On match days, leading radio stations regularly cover all championship games, not only in Russia, but also in other countries.

Watch the news on the Russia 2 channel; on days when football events take place, an entire block is dedicated to the results of the games. You can also find out the latest results football matches in thematic programs on “TV Center”, “Russia 2”, “Sport 1” and paid channels.

A rare player will be able to stay in the black for a long time when betting on sports, based only on his intuition. To make stable earnings at a bookmaker's office, you need a detailed analysis of each match, which analysts prepare in the form of a short forecast. In football, the analytical forecast includes the influence on the result of factors such as player injuries, the emotional state of the team as a whole, the characteristics of the pitch and even the expected weather.

You will need

• - Access to information about the current status of players on each team;
• - Results, as well as video replays of past games.

Instructions

A complete analysis of a football match involves evaluating each team. The current state of the team is indirectly indicated by its latest games. Include in your game forecast, noting the number of goals, cards and all other parameters relevant to the bet you are proposing.

Include in your forecast the history of confrontations between the teams meeting in the match being analyzed. It happens that a team, despite its brilliant successes in a given season, historically cannot beat a certain middle-ranking team. Such trends are quite stable, so betting on such matches can be especially profitable.

Analyze the internal atmosphere of each team. Of course, what happens in the locker rooms and in training is kept secret. However, conflict in a team can be noticed by indirect signs, such as harsh statements by players when communicating with journalists or an openly biased attitude of a coach towards a player.

Mark whose field the game will take place on. The field factor can be very significant, because a team playing within the walls of its home stadium feels the support of its fans and, moreover, does not experience overload from flights. However, some teams, on the contrary, play much better away than at home. This paradoxical fact must be reflected in the forecast.

Evaluate what goals the team sets for itself, as well as what matches the team expects in the near future. Often teams openly “rest” in matches with outsiders, saving their strength for more important confrontations. Or the team, which was shining at the beginning of the season and made a bid for the podium, suddenly fades and begins to lose, since the goal of staying in the league has been achieved.

Sum up each of these factors and draw the appropriate conclusion regarding the expected outcome of the match. This is not necessarily a bet on a draw or victory of one of the teams. The analysis may show, for example, that an objectively good bet would be on the sum of goals in a match, or on the time of the first goal scored.

Video on the topic

Helpful advice

For objective information, refer to the official team websites, and not to one of the many sports news portals;

Some sports strategies involve playing with high odds, so include several such events in your forecast;

The first games of the season are difficult to analyze; in such games, the role of secondary factors in the game increases;

Your football predictions will be better the more thoroughly you analyze the tournament situation and the state of the team itself. Therefore, try to make forecasts for the games of the same teams - being in your sight, they will become more predictable.

Sources:

• The largest portal with football forecasts

Every person's life consists of little things. The one who pays attention to every little detail can really achieve his goal and achieve success. For example, football bets, where you need to take into account every little detail to win. But what exactly should you pay attention to in football betting?

Instructions

You can either win or lose money at a betting company. There is no need to bet the entire amount at once and take unnecessary risks.

Emotions are the main part of a football bet. You need to constantly control yourself, especially when you lose a huge amount of money.

You can be a football expert, but still not win. The most basic thing you need is to study the specifics of betting and understand the functioning mechanism of a bookmaker company.

Even if you are 100% convinced of victory, you should not bet a huge amount of money on one match.

Remember, only you are to blame for losing. Only you are responsible for your mistakes!

It is currently extremely difficult to distinguish real football from match fixing, so try to distinguish between these two concepts and avoid fixed matches. Unfortunately, there are now an extremely large number of them.

The most basic rule that must be taken into account when placing an express bet is that one event may not go through! Therefore, you shouldn’t put many events into one express train; it’s better to do two at a time. Thanks to this strategy, you can protect yourself from possible risks.

From time to time, the bookmaker's odds do not correspond to reality; they are deliberately misleading. The bookmaker's most basic goal is to get your money.

The only unaccounted for moment can serve as a defeat factor. As a result, take football analytics seriously before placing a bet.

Video on the topic

“Forecast is a delicate matter, Petrukha!”

Before you take on such an important task as making a forecast for the outcome of a football match, and try to earn something from it, you need to clearly determine how much you understand the intricacies of football. Are you ready to devote time and effort to the art of sports analysis? Can you do it seriously or is it just a temporary hobby for you for the sake of quick and supposedly easy money?

The ideal, according to bookmakers, is a combination consisting of an understanding of the nuances of the game, the ability to think and see not only the ball and the lawn, but also certain football tendencies. Only then is it permissible to risk your money.

At the beginning of 2014, there were 27 licensed bookmaker organizations in Russia accepting bets on football. They are located mainly in Moscow, Krasnodar and St. Petersburg.

Things to consider

Fans who decide to bet money on a win or a draw need to take a lot into account first. The list includes position in the table; results of recent games, including those played between the teams on whose game the bet will be placed; tasks for the season; and the fact in which city the match will take place. It is equally important for the forecast to know exactly whether there are injured or disqualified players in the squads, especially among the leaders. Finally, information about who exactly will referee the game is of great importance.

You can bet on football not only offline, but also online.

Rules for making a forecast

Experts and experts in sports forecasting claim that there are three methods for making it. The first one is most often used by beginners who have barely entered the bookmaking business and, out of naivety, are overly confident that they have not only intelligence, but also extensive knowledge of professional knowledge. This method is called intuitive. It is based, first of all, on conceit and unwillingness to think. A fairly common mistake for such people is the blind belief that only their favorite team should win, regardless of any external circumstances, statistics and their own adversity.

The second method is called analytical. It consists of consistently collecting statistical information and various information about the tournament, teams and players, and in general about everything that happens around a particular match.

Finally, the third method can be called mathematical. It allows you to hit the jackpot thanks to someone's accurately executed penalty kick. This is the most difficult path to the jackpot. It is used only by the most advanced fans who prefer formulas with calculations, and are convinced that in football forecasting those who have the ability to count correctly win.

Do sports betting without preliminary analysis And predicting the outcome, perhaps the strangest decision of bookmaker players. In order to long distance To get a positive result, you must predict the outcome of the meeting, and only then make a decision to bet on it or not. In this article we will share practical advice, we’ll tell you how to correctly analyze information and make predictions for matches, and we will also give a clear algorithm of actions.

Predicting sports matches is not an easy task. Making a forecast itself is pure analytics. In addition to the fact that you will need to process a huge flow of information, you must also be able to sort it by importance, as well as “sort it into shelves.” This is comparable to a large library. You have been brought a huge number of books, you must sort by genre, author, significance (after all, uninteresting works can be put away), or according to some other characteristics and parameters, put everything on shelves, and when you are asked to give out the book, in a few seconds you need to figure out where it lies. It’s the same with forecasting, first you read and receive information, and then at any moment you will have to pull it out of your head and apply it correctly. Such information can be statistics, injuries, statements by coaches and players, team goals for the season and for a specific match, motivation and many others.

Before we begin, it’s worth recalling that the player’s primary and most important task is right choice bookmaker's office. Bet only in the best bookmakers! You can read about how to find a decent bookmaker. Well, we advise you to pay attention to three offices from our rating: BC "WINLINE", BC "MELBET" and BC "1XBET". These are high-quality and reliable betting operators that do not create problems for players, and this is the most important thing. Plus, in these bookmakers you will find many events for betting, a wide selection and excellent odds.

Selecting a sport and league to predict

First of all, you should choose a sport that you are good at. If you love football and hockey, know the players, teams, various intricacies of these sports (and if you don’t know anything, then it’s generally unclear why you’re betting), then there’s no point in getting into, for example, tennis or basketball. Of course, it is best to specialize in one sport, but predicting two is, in principle, uncritical. In addition, you need to weed out those leagues and championships that you do not know. For example, if you are predicting football matches, then you need to choose the top leagues (EPL, Bundesliga, RFPL, Primera, etc.), and not go into the third division of Zimbabwe or the fourth league of Germany. Forecasting hockey matches- choose the KHL and NHL, predicting basketball - choose the NBA, etc. The most important thing is don’t jump from one sport to another, and don’t be torn between several championships. If you are experiencing difficulties and feel that, frankly, you cannot handle several sports, championships, leagues, then it is better to reduce their number.

Making a forecast includes four phases:

1. Collection of all kinds of information;
2. Processing and sorting information;
3. Analysis and preparation of a preliminary forecast;
4. Predicting the outcome of a match

Collecting match information

Statistics

At the first stage, you need to collect all the information about the match necessary to make a forecast. First of all, study the statistics. Don’t forget to divide all indicators into away, home and general.

The most important indicators:

• last team meetings;
• last head-to-head meetings between rivals;
• tournament position;
• average value of goals scored per match;
• average value of goals conceded per match;
• average of goals scored over the last five matches;
• average of goals conceded over the last five matches.

Thanks to the statistics of recent meetings, you can determine the current form of the team (players), goals scored/conceded - from the same opera, only you can find out in more detail the indicators at any segments of the season. Based on the history of head-to-head confrontations, a number of indicators can be determined, for example, the performance of teams in a game with each other, how often opponents hit each other’s goals, etc. Based on the team’s tournament position, you can determine the overall performance indicator (for a certain number of matches or for the season as a whole), as well as learn about the team’s motivation and goals for the next game.

Compositions

Typically, team lineups become known an hour and a half before the start of the meeting, but based on information about injuries, you can have an approximate idea of ​​the team lineups for upcoming match. You can also compare the lineups for, say, the team’s last three matches.

Series

Highlight different series: victories in a row, defeats in a row, goals scored in a row, missed goals in a row, clean sheets and “both will score” meetings. These are the most important indicators in forecasting.

News

Read the press Special attention should focus on interesting facts rather than statements from players and coaches. An example of an interesting fact: Lokomotiv, visiting CSKA, cannot win ten matches in a row. Here it is immediately obvious interesting fact, and statistics, and a series, in this case without victories. Such information always needs to be noticed, processed and applied.

Motivation

One of the most important factors is motivation. You must accurately find any motivational components. For example, the last round is taking place group stage Champions League. Real Madrid is in third place in the group, trailing Borussia Monchengladbach, which is second, by two points. Real Madrid's next match is against Borussia, and at the Santiago Bernabeu. Obviously, the Royal Club sets itself the goal of reaching the Champions League playoffs, and not getting into the Europa League, so the team will enter the match, which will also be a home match, with special emotions.

Revenges

The thirst for revenge is another of the most important factors that can directly affect the result of the match (in the case of opponents of approximately equal levels). There are often situations when, after a major home defeat, a team is eager to rehabilitate itself in front of its fans. Missed advantages and defeats in the last seconds, defeats in overtime, in shootouts, defeat due to a goal that was not counted according to the rules, defeat in the derby - all these situations give rise to the desire to take revenge from the opponent.

Derby

Separately, we need to touch on the derby teams. Derby is a competition between teams from the same city or region. Opponents usually go into such matches overly motivated, because victory in a derby is doubly sweet, and in addition, it very often promises good bonuses.

Processing and sorting information

When you have received a sufficient amount of information about the match, you need to immediately discard everything superfluous, and superfluous is something that will in no way affect the outcome of the match (garbage). Next, you need to structure the information, separating important factors from secondary ones. All factors are divided into direct, indirect and abstract.

Direct factors

Direct factor- this is a factor that can directly affect the outcome of the meeting. For example, an injury to the leading player of Team 1.

Indirect factors

Indirect factor- this is a factor that can only indirectly affect the outcome of the meeting. For example, appointing a referee for a match who does not skimp on red cards. Because of this, there is a high probability of a Team 1 player being sent off in the match, as a result of which Team 1 may miss, fail to score (if an early removal), or lose. Current weather, intra-team intrigues, disagreements, etc. - all these are indirect factors.

Abstract factors

Abstract factors- these are events during the match that cannot be foreseen in any way. For example, a player’s injury during a match, worsening weather (rain, snow), noise from fans, good luck and bad luck. Please note, it is the worsening weather, not the current weather. Worsening weather is an abstract factor, the current weather is indirect, but in combination with others it can become direct. An example of failure: a player goes one on one with the goalkeeper, throws a shot and it hits the post. An example of luck: a player hits the goal, a player appears in the path of the ball, and the ball, after a rebound, ends up in the net. Note that for one team hitting the post is a failure, but for another it will be a success. Abstract factors should simply be neglected. Firstly, it is almost impossible to predict them, and secondly, in the case of successes and failures, we believe that there will be approximately equal numbers of them in the match, and they will compensate for each other.

For us, the most important will be direct factors, and indirect ones only selectively. Why selectively? Yes, because an indirect factor in combination with other indirect factors and under certain conditions can become direct. If we take into account every little detail and calculate the probability of an event occurring that was generated by another event, we will go crazy. There is also no need to reach the point of idiocy.

How to make a preliminary forecast for a match?

Next, we work only with direct factors (statistics, injuries, etc.). We collect everything that happened and analyze it. On at this stage you must select an event in the match (bet) that you think should happen. Forget about calculating the probability of a bet passing or calculating the probability of an event occurring! In this case, you are interested in the following: whether this event will happen or not, 1 or 0, false or true. Naturally, the bet must be supported by something, and not taken at random. This is where you need to use that “library principle”, take out small pieces and start putting together the puzzle. You must be able to not only make a forecast, but also explain your choice in favor of this bet.

How to Calculate Team Strength Rating

When making a preliminary forecast, you can use a very good system for calculating the team strength rating proposed by J. Miller. Ideally it is written for American football games, but we have modified it for football, hockey and basketball. However, this system works better in high-performance sports (volleyball, basketball, handball, American football, etc.).

First of all, you need to remember two main rules:

1. Use this system only after 5-6 rounds of the championship have been played;
2. Do not use results from friendlies or pre-season matches.

You take the last 5 meetings of the team and write down the goals scored, pucks, etc. Cross out the highest and lowest results according to goals scored. Next, add up the remaining three indicators and divide by three. In order to calculate the defense rating, do the same: cross out the largest and smallest value of goals conceded, then add up what remains and divide by three.

Example

National Hockey League match "Detroit Red Wings" - "Pittsburgh Penguins".

Detroit's last five meetings:

Detroit 1-2 Anaheim
Detroit 3-4 Vancouver
Detroit 5-1 San Jose
Detroit 3-1 Florida
Detroit 3-2 Edmonton

Pittsburgh's last five meetings:

Pittsburgh 1-3 Buffalo
Pittsburgh 3-2 Arizona
Pittsburgh 6-1 Toronto
Pittsburgh 2-3 Montreal
Pittsburgh 3-1 New Jersey

Detroit goals scored: 1, 3, 5, 3, 3.
Detroit's missed goals: 2, 4, 1, 1, 2.

Pittsburgh goals scored: 1, 3, 6, 2, 3.
Pittsburgh's missed goals: 3, 2, 1, 3, 1.

We cross out 1 and 5 goals (the smallest and largest performance indicator), and add the remaining three indicators: 3+3+3=9. Now we divide this value by three: 9\3=3.

We cross out 1 and 4 goals (the smallest and largest indicator of goals conceded), and add up the remaining three indicators: 1+2+2=5. Now we divide this value by three: 5\3=1.66.

We cross out 1 and 6 goals (the smallest and largest performance indicator), and add the remaining three indicators: 3+2+3=8. Now we divide this value by three: 8\3=2.66.

We cross out 1 and 3 goals (the smallest and largest indicator of goals conceded), and add up the remaining three indicators: 3+2+1=6. Now we divide this value by three: 6\3=2.

How to make a forecast for the exact score of a match?

The Power Ranking can be used to determine the preliminary score of a meeting between two teams. Let's try to estimate how many points Detroit can score and how many points Pittsburgh can score. To do this, add Detroit's offensive rating to Pittsburgh's defensive rating, and then subtract 3 (the average team points in the NHL).

Average totals for leagues and sports:

• NHL = 3
• KHL = 2
• NFL = 20
• NBA = 100
• Football = 1

Calculation:

"Detroit": 3+2-3 = 2
"Pittsburgh": 2.66+1.66-3 = 1.32

For home teams, you should almost always round up the value, or add 0.5 or 1, but you should also look at the average of the opponent's goals conceded in away games. If the visiting team concedes quite a lot, feel free to round up. You can also calculate the average value of goals scored/conceded for a season, or for a period of at least 10 matches. In our example, we will round both values ​​upward. Let’s imagine that “Detroit” at home has a goals/conceded record of 2.66/2.53, and “Pittsburgh” on the road has a record of 2.71/2.55. “Pittsburgh” concedes more than 2.5 goals on the road per match, so we increase the value of Detroit’s goals scored. In the same way, “Detroit” concedes more than 2.5 at home, while “Pittsburgh” has a high conversion rate on the road - 2.71 on average per match.

Thus, we calculated that the match “Detroit” - “Pittsburgh” could end with a score 2-2 or 3-2 (Borderline value). But then you need to build on additional information and indirect factors that could affect the outcome of the meeting.

How to make a final match prediction?

First we need to check everything again. See if you interpreted the information you received correctly, have you divided direct and indirect factors correctly?, have you missed anything important? Are you correct calculated the team strength rating. Further check if new information has appeared, and if it appears, then you need to take it into account when making a forecast. Now analyze whether a combination of indirect factors will affect the successful passage of the bet. For example, if there are a lot of them, look to see if they have anything in common. Wouldn't it turn out that one indirect factor in combination with another will give rise to a direct one? In any case, all this needs to be taken into account, but there is no need to confuse yourself. Just analyze, ask yourself questions and answer them. You are just thinking, and confusion will not lead to anything good. It will all end with you simply getting confused in your own thoughts and doubts.

This is roughly how forecasts for matches are made. Please remember that every match and every situation is unique, so your situation may differ from the above. The most important thing, as has already been said, is to collect information, discard the unnecessary, analyze it and make a forecast, and then check yourself. Your main tool is statistics and news. Think and analyze, but don't get carried away. You need to analyze deeply, but quickly, otherwise you will drown in your own thoughts. Happy forecasting!

By the way, this is precisely what explains why you should not ask the Higher Powers the same question twice. For the first time, provided that you turned to a really strong esotericist, and therefore able to make contact with them, the Higher Powers give the most honest answer. But after that, they consider their mission completed, and your request for help satisfied. Therefore, when going to tell fortunes again, even to the most powerful magician, you must be prepared for the fact that no matter how hard he tries, he will not be able to make contact with the Higher Power. Instead, some entity or some spirit will contact him, which, as you now know, will only supply false information.

But let's get back to guessing the results. sports match, by betting on which, you decided to increase your capital.

Having been practicing predictive magic for decades, I have developed my own system that allows me to increase the likelihood of an accurate answer to the question “Who will win?” up to 85 - 95% comrade. Knowing that thousands of psychics around the world are asking this question in parallel with me, and therefore it will not be possible to get an exact answer, I follow my own path, inaccessible to other esotericists. Instead of asking, “Which team will win?”, I study the situation of the players' families after the match or fight, using that as a basis for making a decision.

Judge for yourself: two boxers have been preparing for a fight for the world title for many months. Each of them has wives or girlfriends, some have children, almost all have friends. The fight takes place, one boxer loses, the other wins. It is almost impossible to predict who exactly, but you can find out what mood everyone will be in the house after the battle is over! So the loser will always have a decline in mood, some kind of emotional mourning, and an easily readable desire for his loved ones to console and support. Whereas the winning fighter will have the rejoicing of the holiday and the joy of victory in his house.

Now you understand how it works, and why, unlike the vast majority of the strongest esotericists, my predictive methods are almost always accurate?!!

Yes, mistakes happen. After all, some people don’t take losing as seriously as many do. And some, even after winning, experience such strong devastation that when reading it, you are mistaken, believing that trouble has happened in the house of the winning athlete. It also happens that athletes with truly strong spirit can rejoice at their defeat, considering it a chance to become better - a certain step through which they still move up. Then, of course, my method fails. But, firstly, this happens extremely rarely, since the overwhelming majority are people, and even more so professional athletes, react to their losses and wins in the same way: victory - joy, defeat - sadness. And it reacts in exactly the same way to any of these events and their surroundings. .

But I’ll warn you right away: I will return the money not because your bet didn’t win. But only if you provide me with information that confirms that my prediction was wrong. So, as proof of my wrongness, you can present information from large sites (amateur blogs with minimal visits do not count), from newspapers and magazines, and recordings of television programs. If it is said that in the house of the athlete for whom I was guessing, despondency and mourning reigned after the match, whereas I said that they rejoiced at the victory, I am guaranteed to return your money. But if it turns out that I was right, then the money will not be returned.

True, over the past 11 years that I have been successfully making such predictions, not a single client has ever approached me with such demands, since I was almost always right. And that is why even those who could not win, despite my help, turn to my magical services again and again. After all, those who collaborate with me on an ongoing basis have long been accustomed to the fact that, thanks to my magical help, their chance of guessing a winning result almost always tends to 100%!!! This means that even after losing 1 or 2 times, they win 10 or even 20 times in a row. And it is simply impossible to go broke with such a pattern!!!

So, what is the correct way to order a prediction for a particular sporting event?

First, contact me only, because today only from me can you get the most accurate prediction for the results of the battle you are interested in.

Second, stop trying to predict the results of group competitions. Remember that in any championship there will be teams for whom 4th-5th place will be a holiday, while regular champions may not experience even a hint of joy after winning first place. Always order predictions for matches or fights between two athletes only. Or to competitions of one round - races at horse races, fights, specific basketball, football, hockey, tennis matches, etc.

Third, try to contact me as quickly as possible. After all, the most accurate answer is received by the one who turns to the help of the Higher Powers first.

Fourth, give up the idea of ​​double-checking my predictions with other esotericists. Remember that because of this you will definitely get the wrong answer to an important question for you, but it can also force the Higher Powers to change the future so that the team whose victory they have already predicted for you loses. And they may act in such a way as to punish you for not trusting them.

Fifth - even if you lose once, remember that this only increases the likelihood of future winnings, since the statistics of my correct predictions are so high that if you bet with my help several times, you will still definitely make a profit!

If you understand everything, then feel free to contact me!!! After all, the faster I carry out the prediction ritual, the more accurate the answer you will find out to your question, and the higher the likelihood of you winning!!!

I recently spoke with astrologers who claimed that they could predict the outcome of football matches better than the toss of a coin. As evidence, a number of forecasts were given, among which there were more successful ones than unsuccessful ones. “Why do you compare it to a coin toss?” - I asked. After all, even for a person far from football (like me), it is obvious that the probability of victory for the Spanish national team (the team with the highest rating) significantly exceeds the probability of victory for, say, the national team of North Korea or Monaco. I said that I was ready to predict the outcome of a match better than a coin toss, without any astrology. For example, based on ratings football teams

The forecasting procedure is simple. We take two teams. Let's compare them by ELO rating. We predict the victory of the team with the higher ELO rating. We compare the forecast with the actual outcome of the match. We don’t count anyone’s cases. The correct forecast is success. The victory of the opposing team is a lack of success. We compare the amount of success with the expected one when guessing with a coin toss.

In total, my sample included 34 first matches of the championship that were not played in a draw. Of these, the outcome of 30 matches (88%) was correctly predicted.

The probability of getting 30 or more successes out of 34 trials with a probability of success of 50% (coin toss) is less than 0.00001 - that is, my success is statistically significantly different from a coin toss, from a random guess.

I suggested that perhaps this is due to the fact that these matches were taken into account in the rating calculation, which is why the result is so good. To control, I subtracted from the team rating the acquired (or lost) rating for Last year(this data is also available on the website I cited) and made new forecasts (based on last year’s rating, i.e. obviously before the championship).

Below is the table. The date of the match, two countries, the country with an advantage in rating today (the team whose victory is predicted), the correspondence of the prediction to reality, the correspondence of the prediction to reality if the prediction is based on a control rating (based on data from a year ago) are indicated.

Date Country Country Advantage Correct? Control?
06/12/10 Argentina Nigeria Argentina Yes Yes
06/12/10 South Korea Greece South Korea Yes Yes
06/13/10 Algeria Slovenia Slovenia Yes No
06/13/10 Germany Australia Germany Yes Yes
06/13/10 Serbia Ghana Serbia Yes Yes
06/14/10 Holland Denmark Holland Yes Yes
06/14/10 Japan Cameroon Japan Yes Yes
06/15/10 Brazil DPRK Brazil Yes Yes
06/16/10 Honduras Chile Chile Yes Yes
06/16/10 Spain Switzerland Spain No No
06/16/10 South Africa Uruguay Uruguay Yes Yes
06/17/10 Argentina South Korea Argentina Yes Yes
06/17/10 Greece Nigeria Greece Yes No
06/17/10 France Mexico Mexico Yes Yes
06/18/10 Germany Serbia Germany No No
06/18/10 Holland Japan Holland Yes Yes
06/19/10 Cameroon Denmark Denmark Yes Yes
20.06.10 Slovakia Paraguay Paraguay Yes Yes
06/20/10 Brazil Ivory Coast Brazil Yes Yes
06/21/10 Violent DPRK Violent Yes Yes
06/21/10 Chile Switzerland Chile Yes Yes
06/21/10 Spain Honduras Spain Yes Yes
06/22/10 Mexico Uruguay Uruguay Yes No
06/22/10 France South Africa France No No
06/22/10 Greece Argentina Argentina Yes Yes
06/23/10 Slovenia England England Yes Yes
06/23/10 USA Algeria USA Yes Yes
06/23/10 Ghana Germany Germany Yes Yes
06/23/10 Australia Serbia Australia Yes No
06/24/10 Denmark Japan Japan Yes No
24.06.10 Cameroon Holland Holland Yes Yes
06/24/10 Slovakia Italy Italy No No
06.25.10 DPRK Cote d'Ivaur Cote d'Ivaur Yes Yes
06.25.10 Chile Spain Spain Yes Yes

There was one objection to this pilot study, that they say that real astrologers predict draws and more. Then I expanded the sample of matches and figured out how to predict draws.

I wrote a program that predicts the outcome (win, draw, loss) based on team ratings. If the team ratings differ by less than 40, then the program predicts a draw. If one team's rating exceeds another team's rating by 40 or more, then that team is predicted to win. I took the number 40 from my head and believe that it can be optimized.

Out of 61 trials, the correct prediction from three options (winner of the first team, win of the second team, draw) was obtained in 35 cases.

If we consider all three outcomes equally probable, then the probability of predicting the same or larger number match outcomes are randomly equal to 9.8 by ten to the minus fifth power. That is, the result is statistically significant: the program guesses better than a thrown “three-sided” coin. In fact, it turns out that draws are slightly more rare in football (only 22% of matches end in a draw on average, rather than 33% based on the ELO database). This can be taken into account when calculating statistical significance, but it does not lead to any conclusions.

Below, for demonstration, I will provide the output file of my program for forecasts and their comparison with real outcomes.

In English, team 1, team 2, the score of the first team, the score of the second team, the prediction for the first team based on the team rating (loss = defeat, win = victory, draw = draw), the actual result of the match, whether the forecast corresponds to reality (TRUE = matches, FALSE = does not match)

South_Africa Mexico 1 1 loss draw FALSE
Uruguay France 0 0 loss draw FALSE
Argentina Nigeria 1 0 win win TRUE
South_Korea Greece 2 0 draw win FALSE
England United_States 1 1 win draw FALSE
Algeria Slovenia 0 1 win loss FALSE
Germany Australia 4 0 win win TRUE
Serbia Ghana 0 1 win loss FALSE
Netherlands Denmark 2 0 win win TRUE
Brazil North_Korea 2 1 win win TRUE
Cote_d"Ivoire Portugal 0 0 loss draw FALSE
Honduras Chile 0 1 loss loss TRUE
Spain Switzerland 0 1 win loss FALSE
South_Africa Uruguay 0 3 loss loss TRUE
Argentina South_Korea 4 1 win win TRUE
Greece Nigeria 2 1 draw win FALSE
France Mexico 0 2 loss loss TRUE
Germany Serbia 0 1 win loss FALSE
Slovenia United_States 2 2 loss draw FALSE
England Algeria 0 0 win draw FALSE
Netherlands Japan 1 0 win win TRUE
Ghana Australia 1 1 draw draw TRUE
Cameroon Denmark 1 2 loss loss TRUE
Slovakia Paraguay 0 2 loss loss TRUE
Italy New_Zealand 1 1 win draw FALSE
Brazil Cote_d"Ivoire 3 1 win win TRUE
Portugal North_Korea 7 0 win win TRUE
Chile Switzerland 1 0 draw win FALSE
Spain Honduras 2 0 win win TRUE
Mexico Uruguay 0 1 win loss FALSE
France South_Africa 1 2 win loss FALSE
Nigeria South_Korea 2 2 draw draw TRUE
Greece Argentina 0 2 loss loss TRUE
Slovenia England 0 1 loss loss TRUE
United_States Algeria 1 0 win win TRUE
Ghana Germany 0 1 loss loss TRUE
Australia Serbia 2 1 loss win FALSE
Denmark Japan 1 3 win loss FALSE
Cameroon Netherlands 1 2 loss loss TRUE
Slovakia Italy 3 2 loss win FALSE
Paraguay New_Zealand 0 0 win draw FALSE
North_Korea Cote_d"Ivoire 0 3 loss loss TRUE
Portugal Brazil 0 0 loss draw FALSE
Switzerland Honduras 0 0 win draw FALSE
Chile Spain 1 2 loss loss TRUE
Uruguay South_Korea 2 1 win win TRUE
United_States Ghana 1 2 win loss FALSE
Argentina Mexico 3 1 loss win FALSE
Germany England 4 1 loss win FALSE
Netherlands Slovakia 2 1 win win TRUE
Brazil Chile 3 0 win win TRUE
Paraguay Japan 0 0 draw draw TRUE
Spain Portugal 1 0 win win TRUE
Uruguay Ghana 1 1 draw draw TRUE
Netherlands Brazil 2 1 loss win FALSE
Argentina Germany 0 4 loss loss TRUE
Paraguay Spain 0 1 loss loss TRUE
Uruguay Netherlands 2 3 loss loss TRUE
Germany Spain 0 1 loss loss TRUE
Uruguay Germany 2 3 loss loss TRUE
Netherlands Spain 0 1 loss loss TRUE

Thus, I showed that even a person who is absolutely not interested in football and knows nothing about it can predict the results of matches better than a coin toss can, using only publicly available Internet resources. Of course, the model I used is very simple, it can be further improved, but it is already good enough to demonstrate a statistically significant result in a small sample of matches (by the way, I have not even received this from astrologers yet). When astrologers or other predictors say that they supposedly guess better than a coin does, this is not surprising: anyone with a minimum of common sense and knowing the approximate strength of the teams. Actually, a test of astrological abilities can be offered as follows: consider cases when the astrologer’s forecasts diverge from the forecast made according to the rating and see whose forecasts come true better.

P.S. Nobody needs a new octopus Paul?

Sports astrology is probably the youngest and most controversial branch of star science. Agree, it is difficult to imagine a medieval astrologer who, for a fee or on his own initiative, would make a forecast about the outcome of some knight's tournament... Such thoughts, at least, make me smile.

However, already in ancient times, astrologers practiced predicting victory or defeat in wars, sieges of fortresses, etc., which to a certain extent resembles the principle of “competition” (team-1 / team-2 = victory 1 or 2).

Modern sports astrology emerged as a full-fledged technique not so long ago, only with the publication of the famous book by J. Frawley, which gained great fame thanks to several high-profile predictions of the outcomes of a number of football finals made on television (and often predicted not only the winner, but also the final game Score).

Sports astrology has since received a powerful impetus for development and application in practice. However, Frawley’s book, although it blew up the astrological community, was not a predictive “panacea” for all occasions in the life of a sports astrologer. An analysis of this work, as well as the opinions of modern experts and my own practice show that the Frawley method has both significant advantages and some disadvantages.

So is astrology capable of accurately predicting the outcome of sporting events? The answer to this question is given by the methods that the sports astrologer uses in his work.

There are TWO MAIN methods of prediction: constructing a horary chart of a question and drawing up a horoscope for a sporting event.

First method: horary question

The most accurate and unambiguous answer about the outcome of the competition is given by the horary chart, i.e. a situational horoscope built at the moment when the astrologer heard a question from a client or asked himself his own question. You can find out more about this technique and the services I provide in this regard by reading. Often in this case, the client is interested in his opinion about the bets, and therefore his appeal to the astrologer can be reduced to something like this: “Will I win against the bookmaker if I bet on such and such a team?”

An experienced astrologer is able with a high probability to give the CORRECT answer to such a question (regarding any sports competition!), by drawing up a horary card: “yes, you will win”/“no, you will lose” and if the answer is positive for the applicant, then supplement it with an indication of the size of the recommended bet (more precisely, the size of the possible win).

This method has one significant drawback - the questioner should not resort to it too often. This is due to the fact that stars “get tired” of answering the same type of questions from the same person, which he asks very often. Therefore, the optimal interval between two horary questions regarding bookmaker bets or other winnings asked by the same person (or if he transmits his questions through someone else) should be at least three weeks.

Second method: constructing an event horoscope

This technique is also extremely clear and logical, but difficult to interpret. Its essence lies in the fact that the astrologer builds an event horoscope for the place and time of a particular competition. For example, the map for the 2012/2013 UEFA Champions League Final looked like this.

UEFA Champions League Final 2012/2013. Wembley Stadium, London. Bayern - Borussia Dortmund

By the way, this match was also interesting because for the first time in the history of the cup, two German clubs met in the final. It is noteworthy that, giving general indications of Bayern's victory, the map suggested that if the match had started five to seven minutes later than planned, the victory would have been for the Dortmud team...

In this kind of horoscopes, the main problem is determining on what principle the corners of the map should be distributed (which team should be given the 1st and/or 10th house, and which team should be given the 7th and/or 4th house). The approaches are very different: home/away, favorite/underdog, team to hit the ball first, uniform color, etc. How many astrologers, so many opinions. My own practice suggests that it is better to take as a starting point the theory of “angle distribution” in event sports forecasting according to Frawley.

And then it’s time to analyze a number of factors that testify in favor of one or the other team. It often happens that a horoscope contains evidence simultaneously in favor of both rivals, which requires the astrologer to have great talent and skill in order to make a correct forecast in this case. Single-digit maps are rare.

There are many difficulties in interpreting horoscopes of sporting events. For example, I was faced with the fact that some of Frawley’s statements made in his “Sports Astrology” do not work or work with obvious glitches. In addition, as research is carried out in this direction, a number of evidence is emerging that is contrary to Frawley's opinion.

Sports astrology, being a developing field, represents a vast field for research. Therefore, there is nothing to be surprised at, not even the inaccuracies or controversial statements of such a venerable astrologer as Mr. Frawley.

The obvious advantages of the method of constructing a horoscope of an event at the time of the competition is that, unlike the sports horary question, it can be used as often as desired. In addition, it gives the key to predicting the score of football matches.

However, the event map also has one, but very SIGNIFICANT, MINUS: it works as clearly as possible only on SIGNIFICANT events, which, as a rule, include the finals of certain competitions (the louder the final, the better - in these cases, the accuracy of predictions made by it is approaching 100%!!!). The method gives a less unambiguous forecast for the semifinals; the situation is even worse with the quarterfinals and playoff series. At the qualifying stages, other “regular” matches and competitions, this method is of little help at all.

These are the two main techniques used by sports astrology in predicting the outcome of sporting events.

Sports astrology, as interesting as it is labor-intensive, is sometimes a thankless task. Therefore, doing it just for the sake of “profit” is an absolutely useless activity. This area of ​​knowledge, as well as the entire astrological science in general, should be treated not just with respect, but with real reverence and admiration. It is worth studying it for the sake of knowledge, only then will Urania give the astrologer the opportunity to earn good money “along the way.” And only so! Putting astrology to serve exclusively selfish goals means obviously being left with nothing.

I would like to note that with this article I am opening a sports astrologers section on my website, in which, in addition to covering issues of the theory of sports forecasting, I will from time to time post my forecasts on the outcomes of some competitions (matches). Please note that all such publications will be of a publicly available (free) nature, and therefore I am not responsible for the result of the use of such forecasts by any of the site visitors and do not give any guarantees.

Those who are interested in the service of an astrological forecast for the outcome of a sporting event can familiarize themselves with its cost and procedure for provision by going to.

Sports astrology is as promising and fascinating a topic as it is fraught with mistakes and disappointments for self-confident beginners. You should be careful with her, as with your dear companion - courteous, patient, persistent.